The underpinning of the abstract social pact between the Nigerian people and her government overly takes precedence and gets its bearing — literally — on a keg of crude oil; and as with any inflammable substance, it is universal knowledge
to the citizenry and the ruling class that the monocultural and fragile economy is only a nearby match of fire away from being engulfed in the flames of stagnation, economic decline and socio-economic pressure.
A lot has happened since 1956 when crude oil was discovered in commercial quantities within the small town of Oloibiri in Bayelsa state.
History, nonetheless, has not been kind on the host communities within the oil producing region of the Niger Delta as the gory tales of the exhaustion of crude oil within the Oloibiri wells, the instigation of oil workers kidnapping, the destruction of farmlands and livelihood due to a massive oil spill and the drawdown on the health and wellbeing of residents accentuated by gas flaring are well documented in print and electronic media, the academic and social literature for all and sundry to draw insights.
Overtime, the behaviour and agility of a country’s economic growth has been observed to be dependent on a twain force of itself — however in a different magnitude and form.
First, there is the growth that rises and sheds its form on the backburners of
learning from (and) experience, which retrospectively re-enacts improved
actions and outcomes. The second is that which replenishes itself in quantity
and size as opposed to self-destruction. On both fronts, there remains to be
seen a political will to emerge from the current submersion in the misty waters
of self-inflicted stagnation — both shunning the opportunity to learn from a
rich history while yet inundated and boxed in depending on a resource that
never grows but instead diminishes.
As
of the commencement of exploration of the bonny light crude obtainable on the
Nigerian soil, it was estimated that there were 159 oil wells. It has been
sixty-five years since a massive discovery that placed the Nigerian economy on
the map — offering a sub Saharan African nation the ability to — ‘on a platter
of gold’ sit on the table to cut down and increase the production of a globally
scarce resource and consequently commanding respect from developed nations as
the largest economy in Africa. This all because in three decades, crude oil
production is now mainstay of the Nigerian economy accounting for nearly all
the foreign exchange earnings and half of the country’s revenue.
Revelling
in the gains of a gift of nature that has provided a window to effect low cost
development to the people while not out of place should nevertheless
traditionally raise pertinent questions on the right forum and quorum with
regards to the availability, dearth, and sustainability of this resource from
the viewpoint of its monumental and monocultural dependence. At a basic level,
what could have become of the country called Nigeria in the absence of crude
oil? Would the dissolution of the Nigerian state have been fostered or would
change be enforced?
It
is this consideration that sets in motion the choice of the decision — to
evolve or to die — and it is also from here — the assumed absence of crude oil
in Nigeria — that the economic sustainability conversations should be advanced
going forward and for posterity sake.
Interestingly,
within the same period when the phrase ‘the natural resource curse’ held sway
among intellectuals and socio-economic scholars in Nigeria — the most populous
country in Africa, the ‘evolve or die’ pledge was gaining momentum and in fact
building cities from the scratch in the West. Little renowned nations with a
sparse density (connoting a limitation in human resources and capital) and
surrounded by just sand and water went out of their way to refine and redefine
living; building their economy from a mode of lack to utmost plenty and setting
precedence for countries that have been in existence for centuries.
Inadvertently,
cities such as Dubai rose to become tourist destination for citizens of
developed nations and more so — sadly for those who hold the key to the oil
shocks and prices. The phrase ‘from lack to plenty’ did not emanate from the
dependence on plenty but a forced threshold from lack.
In
Nigeria, the consternation of dwindling economic variables that exist alongside
the dependence on crude oil is bolstered by the magnitude of projected indices
as contained in the annual budget. The variables are ever constant and the
macroeconomic goals have hovered around these — stable oil price, lower levels
of inflation, strengthened exchange rates, increased foreign exchange reserves
among other macroeconomic imperatives. Ultimately, I could only imagine the
tremendous uneasiness and trepidation within the government circles should Oil
fail today.
The
masterclass to making the successful sustainability journey is barefaced — one
that requires at the minimum, a deep reflection of the underlying goal to
exploit local capabilities to ultimate advantage as opposed to the adoption of
distant plugins. The comparative advantage committal ensures that multiple use
cases are employed intrinsically to targeted economic and social goals with
ripple effects on the people — Nigerians living in the cities, hinder villages
and settlements without so much as a sufficient access to enabling
infrastructure and supportive mechanism (like finance) that drives desired
wellbeing and welfare.
A
deep scrutiny for the all-inclusive solution within the ambit of available
territorial potential to effect diversification should oscillate around a
shared basket offering managed from the centre and a self-sufficient revenue
mobilization from the states. Ultimately, this rides pragmatically, on the
existing political structure and revenue allocation formula that is currently
used for the allocation of revenue and its subsequent deployment for
development projects at the all levels.
The
spectrum of alternative resources within Nigeria’s 923,768 km² land mass
transcends water and crude oil. There is a large reservoir of natural gas, tin,
iron ore, coal, limestone and Zinc amongst other natural resources.
Nevertheless,
among these, arable land currently holds the greatest potential in the quest
for diversification and self-sufficiency with Agriculture now dubbed the next
oil.
The
modular operationalisation of the agriculture-based economy requires a focus on
the strength of the value chain while financial support and the access to forex
will be critical. The Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN), Development Bank of
Nigeria (DBN) and Micro-finance Institutions (MFBs) have been identified as key
players in this drive to ensure that requisite leverage is provided to Micro,
Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) to venture into an agricultural sector
whose risk levels are currently at an all-time high.
Capacity
building workshops are also necessary to increase confidence to pivot freely
around the wide range of agricultural offerings that abound with assured gains.
States
that currently support the production and exportation of cash crops should be
identified, prioritized and embedded in the federally allocated revenue sharing
formula. This will spur increased action from other states to buy into the
current targets of increased foreign exchange revenue generation.
Mobilization
of the citizenry from the comfort of the homes to the farms is a project that
will require maximum awareness, sensitization and education to re-route people
to stress-free, customer centric and seamless support. Farm settlements should
be strategically mapped out for agricultural production and the proportion of
land allocated to alternative purposes be standardized to ensure a sufficient
blueprint that is not skewed away from the aim of revenue generation.
Finally,
the abundant human resource capital in the country will serve as base for the
agricultural sector providing impetus for greater academic researches and
technological breakthrough in the use of mechanized farm implements, methods
and tools that have a potential to increase production monumentally to levels
sufficient enough for foreign exchange revenue and domestic food security.
In
all, a multi-rooted economy ingrained on the exploitation of available natural
resources, technology and human capital base is the ticket to a sustainable
economy viable for a current Nigeria and the generations yet unborn even if oil
fails.
